Garrow's SCC Preview: Gordon a good bet

Can a competitor's performance in the NASCAR Sprint All-Star race be a crystal ball for the Coca-Cola 600? After all, the races are only a week apart, both are at night, and there's little change in North Carolina's weather from one weekend to the next. Count on it being hot, humid and with a chance of rain.

True, the All-Star race is shorter and divided into segments, with the final one being a 10-lap sprint, but many teams view it as a test session for the 600. It reveals their strengths and their weaknesses, how a car performs on long and short runs, and when two-tire changes or four-tire changes are the key. On the other hand, the Coca-Cola 600 is a marathon. It's the longest stock car race, it's physically and mentally draining on the drivers, and 600 miles is a strain on equipment.

However, since the All-Star race was introduced in 1985, the winner of that event has gone on to claim the Coca-Cola 600 the following week on six occasions. Kasey Kahne accomplished the feat most recently, winning both events last year. Preceding Kahne were: Jimmie Johnson, 2003; Jeff Gordon, 1997; Dale Earnhardt, 1993; Davey Allison, 1991; and Darrell Waltrip, 1985. This year, Tony Stewart will attempt to add his name to that list and it probably won't be in the car he drove to victory in the All-Star race. Crew chief Darian Grubb said they had a car at the shop they believed was even better and the All-Star winner would probably be the team's backup. This could signal a breath of fresh air for Stewart, who normally performs well on the 1.5-mile tracks, but has struggled at Lowe's Motor Speedway (LMS). In the past four races at the facility, Stewart has no top-5s and only two top-10s, a sixth in the 2007 Coca-Cola 600 and a seventh later that year in the October event.

One, however, doesn't have to be victorious in the All-Star race to produce a top performance in the 600-mile event. In the past four years, every 600 winner has competed in the All-Star race. In 2007, Casey Mears turned an 18th in the All-Star event into a surprise victory the following week. Kahne placed 14th in the 2006 All-Star race, then won the 600. Johnson parlayed a fifth into a 600 victory in 2005.

Last year, the top two finishers in the All-Star race were identical in the 600; Kahne and Greg Biffle, respectively. In three of the past four years, the top five finishers in the 600 competed in the All-Star race. The lone exception was 2007 when 13 caution flags for 62 laps created a strange evening that saw many of the top drivers involved in accidents. That year, half of the top 10 came from the All-Star event. The winner, Mears, was the only one in the top five, as the others found themselves in positions six through 10.

One, however, can't focus solely on these two races to determine who could fare well at LMS Sunday. The overall picture shows Gordon and Johnson always performing well on 1.5-mile tracks. In the past four races at speedways of that length, Gordon has only one finish outside the top five, but none outside the top 10. Gordon, the standings leader, also has acquired the most points on the superspeedways of anyone this year: 948. Teammate Johnson, who has two top-10s in the past four races on 1.5-mile tracks, is second in points earned on superspeedways with 902.

Kurt Busch has become a factor this year due to his Penske Racing Dodge obtaining the horsepower that was lacking last year. Busch won in Atlanta, finished eighth at Texas and was third in last weekend's All-Star race. He is third in the amount of points earned in superspeedway races this season with 886 and third in the standings.

Stewart's return to Chevrolets, powered by Hendrick engines, has been a big positive. The Indiana native, who is second in the standings, has earned 884 points on superspeedways. He also has two top-10s in three 1.5-mile races this year.

Of course, don't ever discount Kyle Busch. He was battling for the win in the All-Star race when a three-wide maneuver with Gordon and Ryan Newman failed. He's also finished in the top five in the past three LMS races.

Big bucks (SCC value 21.0 and up)

As we begin a new SCC segment, we have new values. Jeff Gordon (22.9) and Tony Stewart (22.7) may be two guys you want to get coming right out of the chute. Gordon was money pretty much through the entire first segment. Here's the scary part about Stewart. Usually, he's a slow starter and has always run better when the weather warms up. His average finish to date this year is 9.5 and, if history repeats itself, should be dropping even lower. Kurt Busch (22.5) is a decent buy as is Jimmie Johnson (22.5). Kyle Busch (21.7) certainly has some growth potential. Three guys at the bottom of this group valuewise have a lot of upside potential: Ryan Newman (21.5), Greg Biffle (21.3) and Matt Kenseth (21.1).

Serious coin (SCC value 18.0 to 21.0)

Mark Martin (20.9) has found his groove and is a great value. After that it gets a little "iffy." You figure Carl Edwards (20.6) is eventually going to get running up front, but when? The same exact thing could be said about Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18.8). Brian Vickers (19.1) might be a good value pick at Charlotte and some of the other bigger tracks coming up on the schedule. For at least Charlotte, Kasey Kahne (19.4) should get some consideration and his price is pretty cap friendly. You know, besides Martin, there are going to be two or three guys from this group who will make some noise in this segment, but no one else really sets my heart aflame.

Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 18.0)

There are a number of drivers in this group who intrigue me. David Ragan(15.6) has gotten off to a miserable start, but this guy is in great Roush-Fenway equipment and is too talented. On the plus side, he was 10th in the Coke 600 a year ago. On the other hand, however, his best finish on the 1.5-mile tracks this year is 19th at Atlanta. If his teammate Jamie McMurray (17.1) could just begin finishing as well as he runs inside races, his value would be tempting. You look at what Joey Logano (15.8) has been doing lately and he looks enticing, not to mention very cap friendly. Another guy with an even lower value who looks to be finally figuring out how to drive a stock is Sam Hornish Jr. (14.7). His teammate David Stremme (16.2) is someone who's averaging an 18th in the past three races on 1.5-mile tracks and ran well in last weekend's Sprint Showdown so he's worth a thought or two.

Debit … not credit

Sure, Jeff Burton (21.9) won last fall's race at Lowe's Motor Speedway, but RCR is struggling on the intermediate superspeedways and that's why I'm staying away from him along with his teammates Clint Bowyer (20.3), Kevin Harvick (18.0) and Casey Mears (17.7). In the first segment when he had a lower value, especially to start with, Marcos Ambrose (18.2) was more attractive. I was happy to get a top-15 or top-20 from him at that price, but at this value I need for him to be a top-10 threat and I don't think he's there yet. The bottom has fallen out for A.J. Allmendinger (16.5). His average finish on the season has ballooned to over 22 and he's not the budget-buster pick he looked like he was going to be when he started the year by finishing third in Daytona 500.

Guru Garrow's gang

My preliminary team, subject to change after our Sunday crew chief chats, for the Coca-Cola 600 looks like this: Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch, Mark Martin, Brian Vickers and David Ragan.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.